Estimated and projected age distribution of Asian people in New Zealand

By age group, median scenario, as at June 2018–2043, % of people

The following information applies to all values in the table. Ethnic group: Asian, Projection scenario: 50th percentile (median)
Year ended June	Measure	% of people
2018	Population aged 0-14 years	19.9%
2019	Population aged 0-14 years	20%
2020	Population aged 0-14 years	20.1%
2021	Population aged 0-14 years	20.6%
2022	Population aged 0-14 years	21%
2023	Population aged 0-14 years	21.2%
2024	Population aged 0-14 years	21.4%
2025	Population aged 0-14 years	21.3%
2026	Population aged 0-14 years	21.1%
2027	Population aged 0-14 years	20.9%
2028	Population aged 0-14 years	20.5%
2029	Population aged 0-14 years	20.2%
2030	Population aged 0-14 years	19.7%
2031	Population aged 0-14 years	19.4%
2032	Population aged 0-14 years	19%
2033	Population aged 0-14 years	18.6%
2034	Population aged 0-14 years	18.2%
2035	Population aged 0-14 years	17.8%
2036	Population aged 0-14 years	17.4%
2037	Population aged 0-14 years	17.1%
2038	Population aged 0-14 years	16.8%
2039	Population aged 0-14 years	16.5%
2040	Population aged 0-14 years	16.3%
2041	Population aged 0-14 years	16.2%
2042	Population aged 0-14 years	16.1%
2043	Population aged 0-14 years	16%
2018	Population aged 15-39 years	47.6%
2019	Population aged 15-39 years	47.1%
2020	Population aged 15-39 years	46.6%
2021	Population aged 15-39 years	44.9%
2022	Population aged 15-39 years	43.1%
2023	Population aged 15-39 years	41.6%
2024	Population aged 15-39 years	40.4%
2025	Population aged 15-39 years	39.5%
2026	Population aged 15-39 years	39%
2027	Population aged 15-39 years	38.5%
2028	Population aged 15-39 years	38.1%
2029	Population aged 15-39 years	37.6%
2030	Population aged 15-39 years	37.2%
2031	Population aged 15-39 years	36.8%
2032	Population aged 15-39 years	36.5%
2033	Population aged 15-39 years	36.2%
2034	Population aged 15-39 years	36.1%
2035	Population aged 15-39 years	36.1%
2036	Population aged 15-39 years	36.2%
2037	Population aged 15-39 years	36.3%
2038	Population aged 15-39 years	36.5%
2039	Population aged 15-39 years	36.7%
2040	Population aged 15-39 years	36.9%
2041	Population aged 15-39 years	36.9%
2042	Population aged 15-39 years	37%
2043	Population aged 15-39 years	36.9%
2018	Population aged 40-64 years	25.9%
2019	Population aged 40-64 years	26%
2020	Population aged 40-64 years	26.1%
2021	Population aged 40-64 years	26.8%
2022	Population aged 40-64 years	27.6%
2023	Population aged 40-64 years	28.4%
2024	Population aged 40-64 years	29.1%
2025	Population aged 40-64 years	29.7%
2026	Population aged 40-64 years	30.1%
2027	Population aged 40-64 years	30.6%
2028	Population aged 40-64 years	31%
2029	Population aged 40-64 years	31.5%
2030	Population aged 40-64 years	32.1%
2031	Population aged 40-64 years	32.6%
2032	Population aged 40-64 years	33.2%
2033	Population aged 40-64 years	33.6%
2034	Population aged 40-64 years	33.8%
2035	Population aged 40-64 years	34%
2036	Population aged 40-64 years	34.1%
2037	Population aged 40-64 years	34%
2038	Population aged 40-64 years	33.9%
2039	Population aged 40-64 years	33.8%
2040	Population aged 40-64 years	33.7%
2041	Population aged 40-64 years	33.6%
2042	Population aged 40-64 years	33.5%
2043	Population aged 40-64 years	33.4%
2018	Population aged 65 years and over	6.6%
2019	Population aged 65 years and over	6.9%
2020	Population aged 65 years and over	7.2%
2021	Population aged 65 years and over	7.8%
2022	Population aged 65 years and over	8.3%
2023	Population aged 65 years and over	8.8%
2024	Population aged 65 years and over	9.2%
2025	Population aged 65 years and over	9.5%
2026	Population aged 65 years and over	9.8%
2027	Population aged 65 years and over	10.1%
2028	Population aged 65 years and over	10.4%
2029	Population aged 65 years and over	10.7%
2030	Population aged 65 years and over	11%
2031	Population aged 65 years and over	11.2%
2032	Population aged 65 years and over	11.4%
2033	Population aged 65 years and over	11.6%
2034	Population aged 65 years and over	11.9%
2035	Population aged 65 years and over	12.1%
2036	Population aged 65 years and over	12.3%
2037	Population aged 65 years and over	12.5%
2038	Population aged 65 years and over	12.8%
2039	Population aged 65 years and over	12.9%
2040	Population aged 65 years and over	13.1%
2041	Population aged 65 years and over	13.3%
2042	Population aged 65 years and over	13.5%
2043	Population aged 65 years and over	13.7%

Definitions

Ethnicity: the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is a measure of cultural affiliation, as opposed to race, ancestry, nationality, or citizenship. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group.
Median projection: Assuming medium fertility, medium mortality, and medium net migration.
Natural increase: live births minus deaths
Net migration: Long-term arrivals to the area minus long-term departures from the area. This includes migration within New Zealand

Data calculation/treatment

It is important to note that these ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population.
Note: Net migration in the year ending June 2023 was much higher than the median net migration assumption used in the updated projections.

For more information

http://datainfoplus.stats.govt.nz/Item/nz.govt.stats/639b804e-9bd7-4b49-99c1-019d5e59928f#

Limitations of the data

The projections are not predictions. The projections are designed to meet both short-term and long-term planning needs, but are not designed to be exact forecasts or to project specific annual variation. These projections are based on assumptions made about future fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility patterns of the population. Although the assumptions are carefully formulated to represent future trends, they are subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the projections and associated probability intervals should be used as guidelines and an indication of the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts.

Data provided by

Stats NZ

Dataset name

Estimates and Projections: National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2043 update 2023

Webpage:

https://explore.data.stats.govt.nz/vis?tm=National%20ethnic%20population%20projections%2C&pg=0&hc[Society]=Population%20projections%20%3E%20Ethnic%20population%20projections&snb=6&df[ds]=ds-nsiws-disseminate&df[id]=POPPR_ETH_008&df[ag]=STATSNZ&df[vs]=1.0&dq=EUROTHER%2BMAORI%2BASIAN%2BPACIFIC%2BMELAA%2BCHINESE%2BINDIAN%2BSAMOAN.P50.2018%2B2023%2B2028%2B2033%2B2038%2B2043.&ly[rw]=YEAR_POPPR_ETH_008&ly[cl]=ETHNICITY_POPPR_ETH_008%2CMEASURE_POPPR_ETH_008&to[TIME]=false

How to find the data

At URL provided, select 50% median scenario. All remaining variables are selected.

Import & extraction details

File as imported: Estimates and Projections: National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2043 update 2023

From the dataset Estimates and Projections: National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2018(base)-2043 update 2023, this data was extracted:

Rows: 2-2,289
Column: 5
Provided: 2,288 data points

This data forms the table Population - Projected population by ethnic group and component (median scenario) year ended June 2018–2043 updated 2023.

About this dataset

National population estimates give the best measure between census dates of the population that usually lives in an area, by ethnic group, for the total New Zealand area.

Method of collection/Data provider

This dataset contains 2018-base (update) projections of the European or Other (including New Zealander), Maori, Asian, Pacific, Middle Eastern/Latin American/African, Chinese, Indian, and Samoan ethnic populations usually living in New Zealand (released September 2022). These projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2018 as a base.

Estimated and projected age distribution of Asian people in New Zealand

By age group, median scenario, as at June 2018–2043, % of people

About this data

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