Estimated and projected Middle Eastern, Latin American, and African population in New Zealand
Median scenario, as at June 2023–2048, number of people
| Year ended June | Number of people |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 103,700 |
| 2024 | 111,000 |
| 2025 | 116,900 |
| 2026 | 121,900 |
| 2027 | 126,800 |
| 2028 | 131,900 |
| 2029 | 136,900 |
| 2030 | 142,000 |
| 2031 | 147,100 |
| 2032 | 152,200 |
| 2033 | 157,500 |
| 2034 | 162,800 |
| 2035 | 168,200 |
| 2036 | 173,700 |
| 2037 | 179,200 |
| 2038 | 184,900 |
| 2039 | 190,700 |
| 2040 | 196,500 |
| 2041 | 202,400 |
| 2042 | 208,500 |
| 2043 | 214,600 |
| 2044 | 220,800 |
| 2045 | 227,100 |
| 2046 | 233,500 |
| 2047 | 240,000 |
| 2048 | 246,600 |
Definitions
Ethnicity: the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is a measure of cultural affiliation, as opposed to race, ancestry, nationality, or citizenship. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group.
Median projection: Assuming medium fertility, medium mortality, and medium net migration.
Natural increase: Live births minus deaths.
Net migration: Long-term arrivals to the area minus long-term departures from the area. This includes migration within New Zealand.
Data calculation/treatment
It is important to note that these ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population.
Note: Net migration in the year ending June 2023 was much higher than the median net migration assumption used in the updated projections.
For more information
http://datainfoplus.stats.govt.nz/Item/nz.govt.stats/639b804e-9bd7-4b49-99c1-019d5e59928f#
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-ethnic-population-projections-2023base-2048/
Limitations of the data
The projections are not predictions. The projections are designed to meet both short-term and long-term planning needs, but are not designed to be exact forecasts or to project specific annual variation. These projections are based on assumptions made about future fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility patterns of the population. Although the assumptions are carefully formulated to represent future trends, they are subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the projections and associated probability intervals should be used as guidelines and an indication of the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts.
Data provided by
Dataset name
Estimates and Projections: National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2023(base)-2048 update 2025
Webpage:
How to find the data
At URL provided, select 50% median scenario, all remaining variables are selected. Download 'Filtered data in tabular text (CSV)'.
Import & extraction details
File as imported: Estimates and Projections: National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2023(base)-2048 update 2025
From the dataset Estimates and Projections: National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2023(base)-2048 update 2025, this data was extracted:
- Rows: 2-2,249
- Column: 13
- Provided: 2,248 data points
This data forms the table Population - Projected population by ethnic group and component (median scenario) year ended June 2023–2048 updated 2025.
Dataset originally released on:
September 11, 2025
About this dataset
National population estimates give the best measure between census dates of the population that usually lives in an area, by ethnic group, for the total New Zealand area.
Method of collection/Data provider
This dataset contains 2023-base (update) projections of the European or Other (including New Zealander), Maori, Asian, Pacific, Middle Eastern/Latin American/African, Chinese, Indian, and Samoan ethnic populations usually living in New Zealand. These projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2023 as a base.