Population projections in New Zealand

Ethnicity is the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is a measure of cultural affiliation, as opposed to race, ancestry, nationality, or citizenship. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group.

These ethnic population projections complement the projections of the New Zealand population National Population Projections 2020(base)-2073. However, only the median series of the respective ethnic population projections and median series of the New Zealand population projections are designed to be directly comparable. Other series cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.
It is important to note that these ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population.

Stochastic (probabilistic) population projections are produced to give estimates of uncertainty, although these estimates are themselves uncertain. The stochastic population projections are produced by combining 2,000 simulations of the assumptions. These simulations can be summarised by percentiles, which indicate the probability that the actual result is lower than the percentile. For example, the 25th percentile indicates an estimated 25 percent probability that the actual result will be lower, and a 75 percent probability that the actual results will be higher, than this percentile.

http://datainfoplus.stats.govt.nz/Item/nz.govt.stats/639b804e-9bd7-4b49-99c1-019d5e59928f#

Projections are not available for all individual ethnicities (eg Tongan). For smaller ethnic populations, it is difficult to derive robust measures of the components of ethnic population change – fertility, paternity, mortality, migration, inter-ethnic mobility – to enable projections to be readily produced.
The projections are not predictions. The projections are designed to meet both short-term and long-term planning needs, but are not designed to be exact forecasts or to project specific annual variation. These projections are based on assumptions made about future fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility patterns of the population. Although the assumptions are carefully formulated to represent future trends, they are subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the projections and associated probability intervals should be used as guidelines and an indication of the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts.

This data was produced in 2024 and is due for further revisions/updates in light of the results of the 2023 Census.

At the URL provided, download unfiltered data.

Demographic projections provide an indication of future trends in the size and composition of the population, labour force, families and households. National Projections are produced at the national level (New Zealand) for the population (total, Māori, Pacific, Asian, and European ethnic groups), families, households and labour force. This dataset contains 2018-base projections of the European or Other (including New Zealander), Maori, Asian, Pacific, Middle Eastern/Latin American/African, Chinese, Indian, and Samoan ethnic populations usually living in New Zealand (released May 2021). These projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2018 as a base.

The projections are used for community, business and government planning and policy-making in areas such as health, education, superannuation and transport. The projections are typically updated every two to three years.